建議聚焦(jiao)中期(qi)業(ye)績(ji)高(gao)增長(chang)(chang)(凈利潤增速預計在30%+)的(de)(de)公司,特別是(shi)(shi)其中估值仍處于(yu)低位的(de)(de)。一類(lei)(lei)是(shi)(shi)下游穩定增長(chang)(chang)且受益于(yu)低價原材料(liao)的(de)(de)公司,如煙(yan)草包(bao)裝(zhuang)行(xing)業(ye)的(de)(de)上海綠新、裝(zhuang)飾紙龍頭齊峰股(gu)(gu)份(fen),下游成(cheng)長(chang)(chang)性較(jiao)(jiao)優的(de)(de)飲(yin)料(liao)包(bao)裝(zhuang)企(qi)業(ye)奧瑞金;一類(lei)(lei)是(shi)(shi)受益于(yu)12年下半年起的(de)(de)地產銷售復(fu)蘇的(de)(de)家居產業(ye)鏈,如品牌(pai)優勢突出(chu)且處于(yu)經(jing)營(ying)拐點的(de)(de)美克股(gu)(gu)份(fen)、定制衣柜領(ling)軍企(qi)業(ye)索菲亞和出(chu)口(kou)木制家具龍頭而目前正轉型內(nei)銷的(de)(de)宜華木業(ye);此(ci)外(wai)關注因湛(zhan)江項目盈利突出(chu)而業(ye)績(ji)超預期(qi)的(de)(de)晨(chen)鳴紙業(ye)(因湛(zhan)江項目經(jing)營(ying)較(jiao)(jiao)好,我(wo)們上調公司盈利預測,由0.27元(yuan)至0.30元(yuan))。

　　包裝(zhuang):下游(you)成(cheng)長和(he)外延(yan)擴張能力(li)(li)奠定(ding)公(gong)司(si)增長基(ji)矗公(gong)司(si)增速(su)主要取決(jue)于下游(you)成(cheng)長性,對(dui)于自(zi)身(shen)處于拐點(dian)轉(zhuan)型期的(de)公(gong)司(si),產(chan)能利用(yong)率(lv)爬坡,子(zi)公(gong)司(si)逐漸跨過(guo)盈(ying)虧平衡點(dian),將體(ti)現較(jiao)高的(de)盈(ying)利增速(su)。此外,持(chi)續的(de)外延(yan)擴張能力(li)(li)也將推動公(gong)司(si)成(cheng)長。而上游(you)原材(cai)料低位,定(ding)價能力(li)(li)較(jiao)強的(de)公(gong)司(si)有望維持(chi)較(jiao)高的(de)盈(ying)利能力(li)(li)。

　　美盈(ying)森(sen)(0.38元(yuan)(yuan),65%),上海綠新(0.27元(yuan)(yuan),60%);合興包裝(0.11元(yuan)(yuan),50%),奧瑞金(0.96元(yuan)(yuan),42%),勁嘉股(gu)份(0.44元(yuan)(yuan),20%),東(dong)風股(gu)份(0.61元(yuan)(yuan),18%),通產麗星(0.10元(yuan)(yuan),12%),永新股(gu)份(0.26元(yuan)(yuan),5%),紫(zi)江(jiang)企(qi)業(0.11元(yuan)(yuan),-10%)。

　　輕工(gong):家(jia)居產(chan)(chan)業鏈受(shou)(shou)益于地(di)產(chan)(chan)銷(xiao)售復蘇滯后影(ying)響(xiang),表現(xian)較佳(jia)。家(jia)具(ju):國內地(di)產(chan)(chan)銷(xiao)售自12Q4起明顯回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)(sheng),考慮到地(di)產(chan)(chan)對(dui)家(jia)具(ju)銷(xiao)售的滯后期(qi),對(dui)13年整年的家(jia)具(ju)銷(xiao)售均起到良好的支撐作用(yong)。家(jia)具(ju)類(lei)公司(si)13H1表現(xian)亦較為出(chu)色。黃金珠寶:因4月黃金銷(xiao)售大增,收入表現(xian)穩(wen)健(jian),但盈利能力因金價回(hui)(hui)落而有所(suo)(suo)下降。文娛玩具(ju):整體受(shou)(shou)經濟增速放(fang)緩影(ying)響(xiang),增速有所(suo)(suo)放(fang)緩。出(chu)口型(xing)企業:出(chu)口美(mei)國訂單(dan)增速有所(suo)(suo)回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)(sheng),但受(shou)(shou)勞動力成本剛性上漲(zhang)及人(ren)民幣匯率(lv)波動影(ying)響(xiang),盈利能力大幅削弱。中報業績前瞻:德力股(gu)份(0.21元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),145%),索菲亞(0.17元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),45%),美(mei)克股(gu)份(0.10元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),33%),潮宏基(ji)(0.29元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),30%),宜華木業(0.20元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),30%),浙江(jiang)永強(0.56元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),27%),姚記撲克(0.31元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),25%),珠江(jiang)鋼琴(0.11元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),25%),星輝車模(0.19元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),20%),齊心文具(ju)(0.21元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),20%),老鳳祥(0.72元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),20%),喜臨門(0.13元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),18%),飛亞達(da)(0.17元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),3%),瑞貝卡(0.11元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),0%),大亞科(ke)技(0.08元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),-2%),群(qun)興玩具(ju)(0.09元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),-30%),明牌珠寶(0.13元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),-36%)。

　　造紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi):漸(jian)進淡季紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)價承壓,關注子行(xing)業(ye)(ye)中(zhong)(zhong)競(jing)爭(zheng)格局較佳有(you)定價能力(li)(li)的企業(ye)(ye)。臨(lin)近6-7月,造紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)進入傳統淡季,紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)價承壓,企業(ye)(ye)盈(ying)利能力(li)(li)6月份(fen)較前(qian)有(you)所下降;關注裝飾特種紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)龍(long)頭齊(qi)(qi)峰股(gu)份(fen),因行(xing)業(ye)(ye)競(jing)爭(zheng)格局較佳,公司在行(xing)業(ye)(ye)淡季仍有(you)能力(li)(li)提(ti)價,進一步提(ti)升(sheng)盈(ying)利能力(li)(li)。中(zhong)(zhong)報業(ye)(ye)績前(qian)瞻(zhan):晨鳴(ming)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)業(ye)(ye)(0.15元(yuan)(yuan),218%),齊(qi)(qi)峰股(gu)份(fen)(0.21元(yuan)(yuan),45%),中(zhong)(zhong)順潔柔(0.29元(yuan)(yuan),38%),太(tai)陽(yang)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)業(ye)(ye)(0.12元(yuan)(yuan),30%),恒豐(feng)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)業(ye)(ye)(0.19元(yuan)(yuan),-5%),景興紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)業(ye)(ye)(0.01元(yuan)(yuan),-70%),博匯(hui)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)業(ye)(ye)(0.01元(yuan)(yuan),-92%),岳陽(yang)林紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(-0.09元(yuan)(yuan),-828%)。