行業發展加速，超(chao)過2020年(nian)目標是大概率事件。核電(dian)中長(chang)期規(gui)劃(hua)中2020年(nian)裝機目標設(she)定了(le)彈性(xing)空(kong)間：規(gui)劃(hua)2020年(nian)裝機會達到(dao)5800萬千瓦(wa)左右，同時約有3000萬千瓦(wa)在建。從2012年(nian)核電(dian)恢復建設(she)以來，已經有5臺機組相繼開工。

　　核事故陰(yin)霾逐漸散去，行業回暖(nuan)。從中國能(neng)(neng)(neng)源結構上來看，2020年5800萬千瓦(wa)極可能(neng)(neng)(neng)是裝(zhuang)機容量(liang)下限，裝(zhuang)機再次超出規劃(hua)的(de)可能(neng)(neng)(neng)性(xing)較大。

　　電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源品(pin)(pin)種中(zhong)經濟(ji)性較好，具(ju)有長期發(fa)展潛力。核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)全年利用(yong)小時(shi)數(shu)較高，能夠穩(wen)定支持(chi)大(da)規模用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)經濟(ji)性良好，除了水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)在(zai)主要電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源品(pin)(pin)種中(zhong)最低(di)(di)，按(an)(an)40年壽命(ming)年發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)7000小時(shi)來(lai)算，度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)約為0.32元，遠(yuan)低(di)(di)于煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)及(ji)光伏。發(fa)改委(wei)改變核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)上(shang)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)定價(jia)(jia)機(ji)制，由單(dan)個項目核(he)準改為核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)標(biao)(biao)桿(gan)上(shang)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)與(yu)當地(di)燃煤(mei)脫(tuo)硫脫(tuo)硝(xiao)標(biao)(biao)桿(gan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)孰(shu)低(di)(di)確(que)定，核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)標(biao)(biao)桿(gan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)為每千瓦時(shi)0.43元，高于現(xian)有商運核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站上(shang)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)。按(an)(an)照寧德項目測算，凈利潤率達(da)到25%。且成(cheng)本(ben)主要為固定資產折舊(jiu)和財(cai)務成(cheng)本(ben)，對能源價(jia)(jia)格和人力成(cheng)本(ben)較不敏感。

　　國(guo)產(chan)(chan)化(hua)程(cheng)度較高，電子類(lei)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)和(he)配(pei)件(jian)仍有空間(jian)。寧德項目(mu)核電設(she)(she)備(bei)國(guo)產(chan)(chan)化(hua)率為80%，其中機械制(zhi)造類(lei)設(she)(she)備(bei)基本(ben)已經國(guo)產(chan)(chan)化(hua)，尚(shang)未實現國(guo)產(chan)(chan)化(hua)的(de)(de)主要(yao)(yao)是DCS(分(fen)散控制(zhi)系統)以及一些電子產(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)。另外，核電國(guo)產(chan)(chan)化(hua)程(cheng)度主要(yao)(yao)是指最終設(she)(she)備(bei)的(de)(de)國(guo)產(chan)(chan)化(hua)比(bi)例，但(dan)并未考慮這些設(she)(she)備(bei)的(de)(de)材(cai)料及配(pei)件(jian)的(de)(de)國(guo)產(chan)(chan)化(hua)程(cheng)度。目(mu)前主要(yao)(yao)設(she)(she)備(bei)供應商(shang)(shang)增(zeng)加了供應鏈國(guo)產(chan)(chan)化(hua)的(de)(de)考慮，在國(guo)內尋找主要(yao)(yao)材(cai)料和(he)配(pei)件(jian)的(de)(de)合格供應商(shang)(shang)，國(guo)內核電配(pei)件(jian)市(shi)場(chang)啟動。

　　內(nei)(nei)陸核(he)(he)(he)(he)電會繼續發展，重(zhong)啟是時間問題(ti)。經過專家(jia)多次評(ping)審和宣傳(chuan)，內(nei)(nei)陸核(he)(he)(he)(he)電的(de)安全性(xing)逐漸為民眾接受。美國(guo)現在運(yun)行的(de)核(he)(he)(he)(he)電站多數(shu)為內(nei)(nei)陸核(he)(he)(he)(he)電，安全性(xing)能(neng)夠達到法規要求(qiu)。國(guo)內(nei)(nei)工業重(zhong)心由(you)沿海地區(qu)向(xiang)中西(xi)部內(nei)(nei)陸地區(qu)轉移，內(nei)(nei)陸地區(qu)用電需(xu)求(qiu)增(zeng)高，內(nei)(nei)陸核(he)(he)(he)(he)電是解(jie)決工業需(xu)求(qiu)的(de)大規模電源。但由(you)于(yu)福島(dao)核(he)(he)(he)(he)事故影響，十二五(wu)期間內(nei)(nei)陸核(he)(he)(he)(he)電審批可(ke)能(neng)性(xing)不大，預計于(yu)2015年(nian)之后開始(shi)建(jian)設。

　　投資建議：核電(dian)作為(wei)經濟性較好的基荷(he)電(dian)源，是發展(zhan)中國家(jia)不(bu)能放棄的選擇。核電(dian)國產化符合國家(jia)能源安全策略，拉動高端裝備(bei)產業升級，維持(chi)行(xing)業“強烈推薦”評(ping)級。建議關注核電(dian)管供應商久立(li)特材(cai)，以及主(zhu)設備(bei)供應商東(dong)方電(dian)氣，上海電(dian)氣。