如今新能源汽車與充電基礎設施這(zhe)么熱，充電樁生產和運(yun)營商到底能有多少利潤?

　　新能(neng)源汽車發展提升對(dui)(dui)充電網絡的(de)需(xu)求：充電樁等基礎(chu)設施的(de)不完善是制(zhi)約新能(neng)源汽車銷量增(zeng)加的(de)重(zhong)要因(yin)素，新能(neng)源汽車銷量的(de)強(qiang)勁(jing)勢頭反過來(lai)又增(zeng)加了(le)對(dui)(dui)充電樁的(de)需(xu)求。我(wo)們上調2015年銷量預(yu)測至25-30萬輛。

　　國家級充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)政(zheng)策有(you)望發(fa)布(bu)：由能源(yuan)局(ju)(ju)牽頭制定的(de)(de)(de)《電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽(qi)車(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基礎設(she)(she)(she)施指(zhi)南》和《充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基礎設(she)(she)(she)施建設(she)(she)(she)指(zhi)導意見》即將公布(bu)，今年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)時(shi)推(tui)進的(de)(de)(de)還有(you)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)國家標(biao)準的(de)(de)(de)修訂。同(tong)時(shi)，近期由能源(yuan)局(ju)(ju)完成的(de)(de)(de)《電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽(qi)車(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基礎設(she)(she)(she)施建設(she)(she)(she)規劃》草案中提出，到(dao)2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)國內(nei)(nei)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站數量達(da)到(dao)1.2萬個，充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)達(da)到(dao)450萬個;電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽(qi)車(che)與充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)(she)施的(de)(de)(de)比例接近標(biao)配的(de)(de)(de)1：1。預計未來六年(nian)(nian)(nian)國內(nei)(nei)新能源(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(站)的(de)(de)(de)直接市場規模(mo)有(you)望達(da)到(dao)1260億元(yuan);在此規模(mo)下，我們預計充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(站)產業年(nian)(nian)(nian)利(li)(li)潤18-27億元(yuan)。如果(guo)未來充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)(she)施的(de)(de)(de)年(nian)(nian)(nian)建設(she)(she)(she)規模(mo)達(da)到(dao)千(qian)億元(yuan)，我們預計充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(站)產業年(nian)(nian)(nian)利(li)(li)潤可達(da)70-100億元(yuan)。

　　配電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)與充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁息(xi)息(xi)相(xiang)關：充(chong)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)絡需求是配電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)必須加(jia)大(da)投資的(de)(de)原因(yin)之一，電(dian)(dian)氣設備(bei)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)是最(zui)早(zao)進(jin)入(ru)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁生產和運營的(de)(de)群體，受益農網(wang)(wang)配網(wang)(wang)大(da)投資，傳統業(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)將(jiang)獲得(de)快(kuai)速提升。我(wo)們預計特銳德2016年(nian)的(de)(de)箱變(bian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)收(shou)入(ru)和2014年(nian)相(xiang)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)70%以上;萬馬股份2015年(nian)電(dian)(dian)纜業(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)40-50%，2016年(nian)和2014年(nian)相(xiang)比(bi)將(jiang)實現翻倍的(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。

　　充電(dian)網絡價(jia)值巨(ju)大：以充電(dian)樁為入(ru)口(kou)進行充電(dian)、廣告、保(bao)險、金融、售車(che)、4S增值服(fu)務及汽車(che)工業(ye)大數據等，才是對充電(dian)網絡較(jiao)全面的商業(ye)價(jia)值認(ren)識。按照(zhao)500萬輛新能源車(che)，充電(dian)網絡利(li)潤(run)空(kong)間為558億元，其中(zhong)充電(dian)服(fu)務費325億元，增值利(li)潤(run)空(kong)間233億元，預計(ji)稅后凈利(li)潤(run)130-150億元，市場(chang)占有(you)率30%以上(shang)龍(long)頭公司(si)可以超千億市值。

　　充電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)建設有利(li)可圖：我們模型(xing)(xing)中的100萬元投(tou)資的小(xiao)型(xing)(xing)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)，在大工(gong)業(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價0.78元/度(du)，充電(dian)(dian)(dian)服務費(fei)0.6元/度(du)，日充電(dian)(dian)(dian)時間16小(xiao)時的假設下，對平均的30kWh車型(xing)(xing)約7年收回投(tou)資成本，投(tou)資回報率約12-13%，對社會資本來說(shuo)有利(li)可圖。