行(xing)業(ye)走勢：上(shang)周上(shang)證綜指(zhi)上(shang)漲(zhang)0.97%，公用(yong)(yong)事業(ye)與環(huan)保指(zhi)數下跌1.32%。環(huan)保板(ban)塊(kuai)中環(huan)境監測和節能與能源清(qing)潔利用(yong)(yong)漲(zhang)幅(fu)較大(da)，分別(bie)上(shang)漲(zhang)4.61%和2.06%;電力(li)板(ban)塊(kuai)中，火電板(ban)塊(kuai)下跌2.09%，水電板(ban)塊(kuai)下跌1.41%，清(qing)潔能源發電板(ban)塊(kuai)下跌0.98%，地方電網板(ban)塊(kuai)下跌1.88%，燃氣板(ban)塊(kuai)下跌4.67%;水務板(ban)塊(kuai)下跌0.75%。

　　本周要點：

　　國(guo)(guo)家(jia)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)局(ju)發(fa)(fa)布1-5 月(yue)(yue)(yue)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)數(shu)據，疫情下(xia)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)求減弱，水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)表現亮(liang)眼：日前(qian)，國(guo)(guo)家(jia)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)局(ju)發(fa)(fa)布1-5 月(yue)(yue)(yue)全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)及(ji)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)工業統計(ji)數(shu)據。從用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)端看，1-5月(yue)(yue)(yue)全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)累計(ji)為(wei)3.35 萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)2.5%，受疫情影響，5 月(yue)(yue)(yue)份全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)為(wei)6716 億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)1.3%。從發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)端看，1-5 月(yue)(yue)(yue)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)為(wei)3.2 萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)0.5%。5 月(yue)(yue)(yue)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)為(wei)6410 億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦時，較去(qu)年同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)下(xia)滑3.3%。由(you)于(yu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊來水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)偏豐，5 月(yue)(yue)(yue)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)26.7%，有望帶動全(quan)(quan)年業績向好，建(jian)議(yi)(yi)關(guan)注水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)龍頭【長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)江電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)】【華能(neng)(neng)(neng)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)】;火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊受用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)求減弱影響較大，5 月(yue)(yue)(yue)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)滑10.9%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)時由(you)于(yu)煤(mei)價仍相對較高，火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業績短(duan)期(qi)(qi)(qi)仍然承壓，建(jian)議(yi)(yi)重點關(guan)注長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)協煤(mei)占比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)較高、火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業績確定性(xing)改(gai)善的(de)標的(de)【國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)】;核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊受益于(yu)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)組集中(zhong)投產，5 月(yue)(yue)(yue)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)1.3%，疊(die)加市場化(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價上浮，全(quan)(quan)年業績增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)可期(qi)(qi)(qi)，推薦“核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)+新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)”雙輪(lun)驅動的(de)【中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)】;新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)大幅(fu)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，截至5 月(yue)(yue)(yue)底(di)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)約3.4 億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)17.6%;光伏(fu)(fu)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)約3.3 億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)24.4%，裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)大幅(fu)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)背景下(xia)5 月(yue)(yue)(yue)光伏(fu)(fu)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)8.3%，受風(feng)資源(yuan)(yuan)影響風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)滑0.7%。隨(sui)著各地能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)“十四(si)五”規劃(hua)陸續出臺(tai)，新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)趨(qu)勢(shi)不改(gai)，推薦裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)規劃(hua)高、在(zai)手項目充足、成(cheng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)確定性(xing)較強的(de)新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)運營龍頭【三峽(xia)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)】以(yi)及(ji)“十四(si)五”期(qi)(qi)(qi)間(jian)成(cheng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)確定性(xing)強、風(feng)資源(yuan)(yuan)優勢(shi)顯(xian)著的(de)省屬綠(lv)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)平臺(tai)【云南能(neng)(neng)(neng)投】。

　　美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)LNG 基礎設(she)(she)施停擺造成歐(ou)洲氣(qi)(qi)價進(jin)一(yi)步上漲(zhang)(zhang)：6 月8 日美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)最大(da)的(de)天(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)出(chu)口公司之一(yi)自由(you)港天(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)公司在德克薩斯州墨西哥(ge)灣處的(de)設(she)(she)施發(fa)生爆炸，公司表示部分設(she)(she)施將在90 天(tian)(tian)內(nei)恢復作(zuo)業，導致短期(qi)天(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)供應驟減。受到(dao)俄烏沖突影響今年以來歐(ou)洲對美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)LNG 依賴度(du)大(da)幅(fu)提(ti)升(sheng)，而(er)自由(you)港作(zuo)為作(zuo)為美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)7 個LNG 出(chu)口終(zhong)端(duan)之一(yi)，占美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)出(chu)口能(neng)力的(de)15%以上，受本次(ci)事件(jian)影響短期(qi)內(nei)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)向歐(ou)洲的(de)天(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)供應受到(dao)較大(da)影響，歐(ou)洲天(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)供需進(jin)一(yi)步緊(jin)張，荷蘭TTF 天(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)期(qi)貨價格本周漲(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)達60%。歐(ou)洲氣(qi)(qi)價大(da)幅(fu)上漲(zhang)(zhang)背景下(xia)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)LNG 國(guo)(guo)際貿(mao)易(yi)業務利潤空間(jian)有望(wang)進(jin)一(yi)步提(ti)升(sheng)，重(zhong)點推(tui)薦以舟山LNG 接收站為依托(tuo)具(ju)備國(guo)(guo)際貿(mao)易(yi)能(neng)力的(de)天(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)龍頭【新奧股份】。

　　市場信息跟蹤：

　　1)碳(tan)(tan)市場(chang)跟(gen)蹤：本(ben)(ben)周(zhou)全國(guo)(guo)碳(tan)(tan)市場(chang)碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)放配(pei)額(e)(e)(e)(CEA)總成(cheng)交(jiao)量50 噸(dun)，總成(cheng)交(jiao)額(e)(e)(e)2,950.00 元。截至本(ben)(ben)周(zhou)，全國(guo)(guo)碳(tan)(tan)市場(chang)碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)放配(pei)額(e)(e)(e)(CEA)累計(ji)成(cheng)交(jiao)量1.92 億噸(dun)，累計(ji)成(cheng)交(jiao)額(e)(e)(e)84.33 億元。本(ben)(ben)周(zhou)，湖北碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)放權成(cheng)交(jiao)量最(zui)高，為9.02 萬噸(dun)，深圳、天(tian)津本(ben)(ben)周(zhou)無成(cheng)交(jiao)量。碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)放平均成(cheng)交(jiao)價方面(mian)，成(cheng)交(jiao)均價最(zui)高的(de)北京市場(chang)為86.28元/噸(dun)，最(zui)低的(de)為福建市場(chang)的(de)24.42 元/噸(dun)。

　　2)天然氣價(jia)(jia)格(ge)跟蹤：國內LNG 價(jia)(jia)格(ge)下跌，據蘿卜投(tou)資數據，本周全國LNG 出(chu)廠(chang)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)指數為6464 元(yuan)(yuan)/噸，環比(bi)(bi)下跌296 元(yuan)(yuan)/噸，跌幅4.58%;根據LNG 物(wu)聯(lian)網披(pi)露(lu)的數據，全國液化天然氣LNG 接收(shou)站均(jun)價(jia)(jia)為7326 元(yuan)(yuan)/噸，環比(bi)(bi)下跌119 元(yuan)(yuan)/噸，　　跌幅1.6%。

　　3)煤(mei)市場價(jia)格(ge)跟蹤：本周(zhou)煤(mei)價(jia)持(chi)(chi)穩(wen)：據煤(mei)炭資源網(wang)數(shu)據，本周(zhou)CCI5500 綜(zong)合價(jia)格(ge)指(zhi)數(shu)為792 元/噸，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)上周(zhou)不變。從產地來看，榆林5800 大(da)卡指(zhi)數(shu)912 元，周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)持(chi)(chi)穩(wen);鄂爾(er)多斯(si)5500 大(da)卡指(zhi)數(shu)787 元，周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)持(chi)(chi)穩(wen);大(da)同(tong)5500 大(da)卡指(zhi)數(shu)910 元，周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)持(chi)(chi)穩(wen)。

　　投資組合

　　【云南能投】+【晉控電力】+【中國核電】+【國電電力】+【新奧股份(fen)】

　　風險提示：政策推進不及預期，項目投產進度不及預期，動力煤價上漲，水電來水不及預期，電價下調風險。


文章(zhang)來源：安信證券股份有限公司